Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, May 14th

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable economic news. Stocks are continuing their rebound that started yesterday, pushing the Dow up 288 points and the Nasdaq up 164 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 1.64%, which with strength late yesterday should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.



30 yr - 1.61%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Retail Sales

This morning’s big economic release was April’s Retail Sales report that showed no change between March and April. That is very good news for bonds and mortgage rates because analysts were expecting to see an increase in sales of nearly 1.0%. Even a secondary reading that excludes more costly and volatile auto sales declined 0.8% when it was forecasted to rise 0.8%. Both readings indicate consumers spent much less than thought last month. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, weaker levels of spending are a sign of slower economic growth. Therefore, we can consider the data extremely favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.



Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

April's Industrial Production report was released at 9:15 AM ET, revealing a 0.7% increase in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This was a little weaker than forecasts, but still in the range of predictions. We are labeling this report as neutral for bonds and mortgage rates.



University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

The final report of the week was May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET. It came in at 82.8, falling well short of the 90.2 that was expected and down from April’s final 88.3. The softer reading means surveyed consumers felt worse about their own financial situations than they did last month. This is good news for rates because waning confidence usually translates into weaker consumer spending, restricting economic growth.




Next week is much lighter than this week was in terms of scheduled events that may influence rates. Most notable are a couple of housing-related economic releases, a Treasury auction and the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. None of the activities on next week’s calendar are expected to be market movers or cause a significant change in mortgage pricing. Look for details on all of next week’s events in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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